查看“对公寓的二次思考”的源代码

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''2022-04-05 00:18'' ''发表于''

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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">最近在整理素材时，注意到一篇我很早以前写的文章，当时主要聊了下对于公寓这类产品的看法。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">那会儿因为各种综合原因，没有在微博/微信公开，一直就躺在草稿箱里了。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">如今想起回过头来看，似乎也还蛮有道理的，大体的逻辑观点并没有咋过时，感兴趣的可以看下原文：</span>

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<span style="text-align: center;font-size: 16px;">上下滑动可查看全文<br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">不过毕竟过了这么久，俺们对于市场的理解也会有更深的认识，旧文重读还是能感觉到当年笔风上的稚嫩。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">看着费劲吧唧扯了几千字，却并没有太好的戳到核心要点。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一、关键要点</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当时公寓市场表现弱势的重点，实际就是基于其产权问题，衍生出了贷款、税务、户型、学区、户籍、居住等等一系列缺点。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">就算同期滞涨导致价格均为同条件住宅七折，加上有不限购的优势，但实际上产品竞争力并不行。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当然这些概念还是有点抽象，说白了就是公寓虽然便宜，但在当时比起买普通住宅并不具备啥明显优势。</span>

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{|
| width="33%" | <br />
| width="33%" |
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">住宅<br />
</span>

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| width="33%" |
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">公寓<br />
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|
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">价格<br />
</span>

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|
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">200<br />
</span>

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|
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">140</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">首付<br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">60<br />
</span>

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<div class="section" style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">

<span style="font-size: 16px;">70<br />
</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">月供<br />
</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">7430</span>

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|
<div class="section" style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;">

<span style="font-size: 16px;">7577</span>

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|}

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">更直观从普通人视角出发，住宅七折的价格买个商务公寓，贷款也没背那么多。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">结果首付支出、月供压力、利息成本并没有优化，甚至还高了一些。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">产证面积看着一样，实际到手的房子愣是小了一截。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">上不了学、水电燃气贵不能入户也就算了，本来买公寓普遍意愿都是奔着投资去。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">结果一看税费，这可咋卖，能涨赚的也大头上交给社会了。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">加上本身公寓这块名声就不太好，互联网上各种声音都说十有九坑。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">只要相对那么理性点，买之前好好算下这笔账，应该就很难冲动起来了。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">所以当时看着价格便宜，但产品上还是缺乏足够的竞争力，过去和后续市场表现不行，并不会很难理解。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">二、重新思考</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">不过三四年后的现在，市场环境又有了很大的变哈，当我再看到这篇文章的时想到。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">既然公寓本身是没有原罪的，过去市场表现不佳的核心在于，作为房子或作为产品，在市场上缺乏竞争力。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">所以本就应该价格低一些。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">而这些都是基于其特殊的产权性质，政策面上的限制过多所导致的。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">如今公寓的价格随着持续滞涨，许多单价已经仅为同楼盘同户型一半。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">官方也注意到了类住宅产品(公寓)与他们当时的设计定位背道而驰，所以增量新房不再批售商务公寓。（历史遗留不算）</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">也算是控制了过往数不清的公寓新房库存，远期这类产品的供求关系格局会好一些。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">加上深圳随着20年之后接连不断的调控，住宅在这方面似乎并没有比公寓好多少，甚至有些更加苛刻。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当我再反过来看这个特殊产品，已经具备了其一定的竞争力和性价比，在市场上并没有以往那般尴尬。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">若是市场关注二手成交应该就能注意到，此类产品的交易活跃度，明显比住宅高上了很多。。（佐证太麻烦容易偏题，自行找案例）</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">三、小结</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当然就算如此，除了消费性需求，我也依旧还是不鼓励买公寓。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">也许在此深挖能够找到一些好的投资机会，而产品竞争力也确实是决定市场表现最核心的因数。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">但长久以来低迷的市场表现，给此类产品带来的负面印象，在很长时间内也很难被撼动，背后依旧还是有着不小的不确定性。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">与其在坑里淘金，还有更多更加主流简单且收益未必更差的投资玩法，没必要挑战这种高难度的操作。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">单纯只是想通过这个案例的探讨，给大家带来不同角度的思考，也欢迎大家在评论区说出不同观点。</span>

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