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对公寓的二次思考 - 版本历史
2026-05-05T18:18:11Z
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2022年10月5日 (三) 14:33 Oper
2022-10-05T14:33:27Z
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">←上一版本</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">2022年10月5日 (三) 22:33的版本</td>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div id="img-content" class="rich_media_wrp"></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><div id="img-content" class="rich_media_wrp"></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">= 对公寓的二次思考 =</del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><span id="copyright_logo" class="wx_tap_link js_wx_tap_highlight rich_media_meta icon_appmsg_tag appmsg_title_tag weui-wa-hotarea">原创</span> <span class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_text"> 唐老师傅 <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></span> <span id="profileBt" class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_nickname"> [javascript:void(0); 唐老师傅Pro] </del></span></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><span id="copyright_logo" class="wx_tap_link js_wx_tap_highlight rich_media_meta icon_appmsg_tag appmsg_title_tag weui-wa-hotarea">原创</span> <span class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_text"> 唐老师傅</span></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></div></div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div></div></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>''2022-04-05 00:18'' ''发表于<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"><span id="js_ip_wording"></span></del>''</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>''2022-04-05 00:18'' ''发表于''</div></td></tr>
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Oper
https://fang1234.cn/index.php?title=%E5%AF%B9%E5%85%AC%E5%AF%93%E7%9A%84%E4%BA%8C%E6%AC%A1%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83&diff=31&oldid=prev
Oper：创建页面，内容为“<div id="js_article" class="rich_media" style="position:relative;"> <div id="js_top_ad_area" class="top_banner"> </div> <div id="js_base_container" class="rich_media_inner"> <div id="page-content" class="rich_media_area_primary"> <div class="rich_media_area_primary_inner"> <div id="img-content" class="rich_media_wrp"> = 对公寓的二次思考 = <div id="meta_content" class="rich_media_meta_list"> <span id="copyright_logo" class="wx_tap_link js_wx_ta…”
2022-10-05T14:32:59Z
<p>创建页面，内容为“<div id="js_article" class="rich_media" style="position:relative;"> <div id="js_top_ad_area" class="top_banner"> </div> <div id="js_base_container" class="rich_media_inner"> <div id="page-content" class="rich_media_area_primary"> <div class="rich_media_area_primary_inner"> <div id="img-content" class="rich_media_wrp"> = 对公寓的二次思考 = <div id="meta_content" class="rich_media_meta_list"> <span id="copyright_logo" class="wx_tap_link js_wx_ta…”</p>
<p><b>新页面</b></p><div><div id="js_article" class="rich_media" style="position:relative;"><br />
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= 对公寓的二次思考 =<br />
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<span id="copyright_logo" class="wx_tap_link js_wx_tap_highlight rich_media_meta icon_appmsg_tag appmsg_title_tag weui-wa-hotarea">原创</span> <span class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_text"> 唐老师傅 </span> <span id="profileBt" class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_nickname"> [javascript:void(0); 唐老师傅Pro] </span><br />
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'''唐老师傅Pro''' [[File:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247484404&idx=1&sn=20073d544163fc53246a8bf463caaeaf&chksm=ce753709f902be1f26d08bb80c191547609d2966e2186eb3ab3e3c425c0c250774fe03ffc6d8&scene=178&cur_album_id=2480860975353708545|class=profile_avatar]]<br />
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功能介绍 <span class="profile_meta_value">可能是东半球最熟深圳楼市的人之一！</span><br />
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<span id="js_profile_arrow_wrp" class="profile_arrow_wrp"> '''' '''' </span><br />
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''2022-04-05 00:18'' ''发表于<span id="js_ip_wording"></span>''<br />
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<div id="js_tags" class="article-tag__list single-tag__wrp js_single js_wx_tap_highlight wx_tap_card" data-len="1" role="link" tabindex="0" aria-labelledby="js_article-tag-card__left js_a11y_comma js_article-tag-card__right"><br />
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<span id="js_article-tag-card__left" class="article-tag-card__left" aria-hidden="true"> <span class="article-tag-card__title">收录于合集</span> <span class="article-tag__item-wrp no-active js_tag" data-url="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/mp/appmsgalbum?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&amp;action=getalbum&amp;album_id=2480860975353708545#wechat_redirect" data-tag_id="" data-album_id="2480860975353708545" data-tag_source="0"> <span class="article-tag__item">#观点</span> </span> </span> <span id="js_article-tag-card__right" class="article-tag-card__right" aria-hidden="true">13个</span><br />
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[[File:./对公寓的二次思考_files/640|class=rich_pages wxw-img|图片]]<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">最近在整理素材时，注意到一篇我很早以前写的文章，当时主要聊了下对于公寓这类产品的看法。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">那会儿因为各种综合原因，没有在微博/微信公开，一直就躺在草稿箱里了。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">如今想起回过头来看，似乎也还蛮有道理的，大体的逻辑观点并没有咋过时，感兴趣的可以看下原文：</span><br />
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<span style="text-align: center;font-size: 16px;">上下滑动可查看全文<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">不过毕竟过了这么久，俺们对于市场的理解也会有更深的认识，旧文重读还是能感觉到当年笔风上的稚嫩。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">看着费劲吧唧扯了几千字，却并没有太好的戳到核心要点。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一、关键要点</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当时公寓市场表现弱势的重点，实际就是基于其产权问题，衍生出了贷款、税务、户型、学区、户籍、居住等等一系列缺点。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">就算同期滞涨导致价格均为同条件住宅七折，加上有不限购的优势，但实际上产品竞争力并不行。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当然这些概念还是有点抽象，说白了就是公寓虽然便宜，但在当时比起买普通住宅并不具备啥明显优势。</span><br />
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{|<br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">住宅<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">公寓<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">价格<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">200<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">140</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">首付<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">60<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">70<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">月供<br /><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">7430</span><br />
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<div class="section" style="margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">7577</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">更直观从普通人视角出发，住宅七折的价格买个商务公寓，贷款也没背那么多。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">结果首付支出、月供压力、利息成本并没有优化，甚至还高了一些。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">产证面积看着一样，实际到手的房子愣是小了一截。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">上不了学、水电燃气贵不能入户也就算了，本来买公寓普遍意愿都是奔着投资去。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">结果一看税费，这可咋卖，能涨赚的也大头上交给社会了。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">加上本身公寓这块名声就不太好，互联网上各种声音都说十有九坑。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">只要相对那么理性点，买之前好好算下这笔账，应该就很难冲动起来了。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">所以当时看着价格便宜，但产品上还是缺乏足够的竞争力，过去和后续市场表现不行，并不会很难理解。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">二、重新思考</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">不过三四年后的现在，市场环境又有了很大的变哈，当我再看到这篇文章的时想到。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">既然公寓本身是没有原罪的，过去市场表现不佳的核心在于，作为房子或作为产品，在市场上缺乏竞争力。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">所以本就应该价格低一些。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">而这些都是基于其特殊的产权性质，政策面上的限制过多所导致的。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">如今公寓的价格随着持续滞涨，许多单价已经仅为同楼盘同户型一半。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">官方也注意到了类住宅产品(公寓)与他们当时的设计定位背道而驰，所以增量新房不再批售商务公寓。（历史遗留不算）</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">也算是控制了过往数不清的公寓新房库存，远期这类产品的供求关系格局会好一些。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">加上深圳随着20年之后接连不断的调控，住宅在这方面似乎并没有比公寓好多少，甚至有些更加苛刻。</span><br />
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<span class="js_img_placeholder wx_widget_placeholder" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/UnvCrug2JK2nfXWUzgDzrejxA6hWibiaVZVushsvEBkEUBd4MQ2JMkLEFOvr68hC0II4S2ib3JKHRCxIfENicKoDsw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-index="4" style="width: 677px !important; height: 796.777px !important;"><span class="weui-primary-loading"><span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当我再反过来看这个特殊产品，已经具备了其一定的竞争力和性价比，在市场上并没有以往那般尴尬。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">若是市场关注二手成交应该就能注意到，此类产品的交易活跃度，明显比住宅高上了很多。。（佐证太麻烦容易偏题，自行找案例）</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">三、小结</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当然就算如此，除了消费性需求，我也依旧还是不鼓励买公寓。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">也许在此深挖能够找到一些好的投资机会，而产品竞争力也确实是决定市场表现最核心的因数。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">但长久以来低迷的市场表现，给此类产品带来的负面印象，在很长时间内也很难被撼动，背后依旧还是有着不小的不确定性。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">与其在坑里淘金，还有更多更加主流简单且收益未必更差的投资玩法，没必要挑战这种高难度的操作。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16px;">单纯只是想通过这个案例的探讨，给大家带来不同角度的思考，也欢迎大家在评论区说出不同观点。</span><br />
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