查看“新房是能烂尾的”的源代码

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''2022-03-12 22:04'' ''发表于''

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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">去年下半年开始，国内的房地产市场突然急转直下，各种房企内部动荡非常之大，新闻上接连能看到爆出各种债务问题。</span><br />


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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">到现在有些已经凉透甚至入土，剩下还有不少在ICU里面躺着的也明显快要被抬走。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">但哪怕都这样了，去年到现在依旧还陆续有人匪夷所思的来问我一些高危房企旗下的项目能不能买。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">价格和产品没啥优势也就算了，主要让我感觉很多人似乎对于烂尾这个概念，缺乏清晰的认识。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">压根不明白这意味着什么。。。</span>

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'''<span style="font-size: 16px;">一</span>'''

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">过去几十年深圳很少出现这个词的原因是基于，以前中途挂掉的项目，大多都是还没进入销售阶段。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">要抢救多少都还是能有一些空间，就看房企愿不愿意贱卖而已。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">而且在城镇化高速发展的进程中，房价也在持续上涨，再烂的项目只要随着土地净值变高，都能有利可图，进而二次重组/盘活。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">但哪怕在这么个大背景下，深圳实际上也有新房销售进程到一半，开发商挂逼项目面临烂尾的惨状。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">然后就是业主们诉求无门，通过各种渠道发声无果，最终过了n多年才抢救成功。。。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">背后的辛酸大家可以脑补，楼盘我就不点名了，毕竟都是过去了。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">如今随着行业一路发展，也许监管机制相对变得更加成熟健全一些。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">但未来能不能继续延续昔日房地产市场的繁荣，在面临同样场景能不能继续有此好运，这些又都是新的问题。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">比如说去年开始多出来的两个新概念：</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">1，恒大事件让很多人以为，当房企出现系统性问题的时候，官方为了民生会力逼保交楼。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">2，问题房企的项目依旧还能正常销售，但售楼处多了购房资金监管的公示，以确保资金并不会被挪用。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">这些措施确实看上去让买房更加有保障一些，因此也整的有些人敢逆水行舟。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">但似乎少有人考虑，实际执行过程真的有那么理想化吗。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">'''二'''</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">我们就假设有些房企是讲武德的，不同项目财务独立不会去挪用项目资金，或者能够顺利被官方监管。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">要是上天不眷顾还是嗝屁了，难不成有人会觉得，会出现更加有社会责任的天使房企过来送温暖，全盘接下烂摊子来维持项目的问题，力保交房？？？</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">其实现实中更多上演的场景是天使们轮流进场，盘点问题房企手里残值，倒逼釜底抽薪打折贱卖。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">趁他病要他命。。。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">有钱赚的那部分项目被轮流瓜分，没钱赚的项目自求多福。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">比如有不少赌徒型的房企，以前拿地策略极其粗狂，旗下很多盘的特性都是成本极高。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">导致哪怕销售计划全部按最理想的状态来，也仅有一点利润，只要操盘上有失误或者市场环境有变化，就很难赚到钱甚至面临亏本。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">该公司要还健在啥都好说，拿其他项目赌赢的钱勾兑下也就没啥问题，都一家人不至于放任不管。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">但要是赌错周期也将会被这种模式反噬，就像现在的主基调就是大也能倒，自然就是面临嗝屁。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">那么问题也就来了，嗝屁了，谁来出钱盖楼。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">1，项目公司负债累累，能不能挤出钱</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">2，房子卖完了或者剩余货值太少，有没有天使会愿意进场，单纯只是亏本出钱出力盖楼做慈善，拯救世界。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">3，地价/税费/融资成本等等，有没有可能吐出来，支持保交楼。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">4，建筑公司会不会大发慈悲，用爱发电没工钱还垫钱给工人坚持施工。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">我想了很久，似乎都很难很难。。。</span>

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'''<span style="font-size: 16px;">三</span>'''

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">解决思路上，我目前能想到的，可能就只有再来一轮去库存，或者就是常去凤凰山，相信奇迹。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">但就算奇迹发生了，1234显灵或者出现第5种情况，还要考虑下小区整体品质会不会减配成丐版。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">毛坯也就算了，顶多小区有树没草坪泳池变涂鸦啥的，忍忍搬进去好好装修下凑合着也能过。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">关键是不少楼盘是含精装修出售的，这开销可就大了，若是精装修兑现不了，收还是不收楼。。。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">当然，除了这些还有个更好的解决方式，不用胆战心惊，不用相信奇迹，也不用指望房企的良心。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">不买！屁事没有。</span>

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<span style="font-size: 16px;">非要买就认准VK和国家队，针对其他房企务必正视这个问题。</span>

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