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<div id="js_article" class="rich_media" style="position:relative;"> <div id="js_top_ad_area" class="top_banner"> </div> <div id="js_base_container" class="rich_media_inner"> <div id="page-content" class="rich_media_area_primary"> <div class="rich_media_area_primary_inner"> <div id="img-content" class="rich_media_wrp"> = 老破小和新远大咋选 = <div id="meta_content" class="rich_media_meta_list"> <span id="copyright_logo" class="wx_tap_link js_wx_tap_highlight rich_media_meta icon_appmsg_tag appmsg_title_tag weui-wa-hotarea">原创</span> <span class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_text"> 唐老师傅 </span> <span id="profileBt" class="rich_media_meta rich_media_meta_nickname"> [javascript:void(0); 唐老师傅Pro] </span> <div id="js_profile_qrcode" class="profile_container" aria-hidden="true" style="display:none;"> <div class="profile_inner"> '''唐老师傅Pro''' [[File:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247487295&idx=1&sn=439abf8876ca9bbbdc0d8e43f5244ef6&chksm=ce753bc2f902b2d4be8ab7ab191d5eebf409ac8506a74f2060ac30d1d13980fe783daea1fd39&scene=178&cur_album_id=2480860975353708545|class=profile_avatar]] 微信号 <span class="profile_meta_value">tanglaoshifupro</span> 功能介绍 <span class="profile_meta_value">可能是东半球最熟深圳楼市的人之一!</span> </div> <span id="js_profile_arrow_wrp" class="profile_arrow_wrp"> '''' '''' </span> </div> ''2022-09-07 22:56'' ''发表于<span id="js_ip_wording">广东</span>'' </div> <div id="js_tags" class="article-tag__list single-tag__wrp js_single js_wx_tap_highlight wx_tap_card" data-len="1" role="link" tabindex="0" aria-labelledby="js_article-tag-card__left js_a11y_comma js_article-tag-card__right"> <span id="js_article-tag-card__left" class="article-tag-card__left" aria-hidden="true"> <span class="article-tag-card__title">收录于合集</span> <span class="article-tag__item-wrp no-active js_tag" data-url="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/mp/appmsgalbum?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&action=getalbum&album_id=2480860975353708545#wechat_redirect" data-tag_id="" data-album_id="2480860975353708545" data-tag_source="4"> <span class="article-tag__item">#观点</span> </span> </span> <span id="js_article-tag-card__right" class="article-tag-card__right" aria-hidden="true">13个</span> </div> <div id="js_content" class="rich_media_content autoTypeSetting24psection fix_apple_default_style" style="visibility: visible;"> [[File:./老破小和新远大咋选_files/640|class=rich_pages wxw-img|图片]] <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; visibility: visible;">在考虑买房时有限的预算下,总会衍生出些极具争议的世纪难题,就比如:</span> <br /> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px; font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">到底是选关内福田南山这种核心地段老旧住宅小区里的楼梯房小面积,</span><span style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 122, 170); visibility: visible;">除了地段之外一无是处。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(178, 178, 178); visibility: visible;">(老破小)</span> <br /> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px; font-size: 16px; visibility: visible;">还是整关外沙井光明龙华等远郊片区有地铁有商业大社区大花园高品质新房里的大面积,</span><span style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgb(0, 122, 170); visibility: visible;">除了地段之外啥都好。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(178, 178, 178); visibility: visible;">(新远大)</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; visibility: visible;">类似容易让人无限纠结的场景,我估计很多人都有遇到过,但行业内在相关题材的讨论确相当之少。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; visibility: visible;">所以这篇我来简单分享下看法。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">一、</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">上述两类产品,在市场上各自都有不同的支持者,这些人群之间有点相互看不顺眼,互骂sb的感觉,部分有点极端化的倾向。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">支持老破小的人觉得,房子本身就是一堆钢筋混泥土没啥特别的,最重要的是地段、地段、还tm是地段,以及附加在其中的配套和相关资源。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">沙井光明龙岗这些鸟不拉屎的地方,什么鬼都没有,开局一张ppt,概念全靠编,房价都是炒作的结果,太虚了。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">支持新远大的人觉得,要用发展的眼光去看房地产,以前的南山宝安在罗湖人眼里也是郊区,但实际上随着深圳的高速发展,这些地方实现了快速逆袭,不相信深圳的未来,那还买个锤子的房子。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">何况论自住,新远大的居住体验也不见得比老破小差,这种生活方式只用自身适当妥协通勤,可以给整个家庭带来更好的生活。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">花了这么多钱,还要买个破楼,要潜力没潜力,住的又不舒服,反倒是死要面子活受罪的一种表现。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">二、</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">这个问题若是放到自住的视角,我相信大多人都不会有啥纠结,只用对号入座看自身需求是啥就好了。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">1,拖家带口对户型要求高、偏年轻对对楼龄敏感</span> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">2,不急着成家只是买房过度,不喜欢远距离通勤之类</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">类似的需求画像下,随便沾上一点,在买房时压根没啥选择的权利,所以自住其实并不复杂。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">但很显然很多人买房时的需求都没有这么朴实和纯粹,内心的述求中多少都有点增值保值或者投资赚钱的愿景。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">为此将住房需求先放一边,租房过度,住投分离也不是啥问题,毕竟日子很长,在阳间要用钱的场景可太多了,谁都不会嫌多。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">只不过聊到了投资的角度,对市场缺乏足够的理解,看谁说的话都似乎很有道理,有点玄学的那感觉了。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">反倒看了越多观点,思路就越迷糊。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">事实也是这样,互联网的普及确实让信息流通变得更加高效,但在信息飞速爆炸的过程中,会延伸出很多噪音,一定程度上是在加剧信息不对称的。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">三、</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">我也只能非常主观的来分享下自己的看法,每个人都有自己的局限性,未必正确,大家可以参考,别完全相信我。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">区域论述:</span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247484302&idx=1&sn=0183132ac1cab68c5cf6d877707163a7&chksm=ce753773f902be65aa3806071d724783347f31db2d2c76d9613ebd16a96291e577387ba627f1&scene=21#wechat_redirect 前海的黑料 上]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485330&idx=1&sn=a96d777c84bb1673bcaa80355e412042&chksm=ce75336ff902ba79194f0cc999cf8660542fbb432f46e6067ac20c36856b828d3a93ff7803f1&scene=21#wechat_redirect 前海的黑料 下]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485376&idx=1&sn=7cb20e8ec9f0ea74859dd290210dfce9&chksm=ce75333df902ba2bd72df1205b9bbe4fc7e153331d28c23bfbb724feab731119ff9ead803c59&scene=21#wechat_redirect 光明的未来能否光明 上]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485408&idx=1&sn=1e6af34874d5ac135cb0b74e0152e90e&chksm=ce75331df902ba0b3e0fe1fb3c5be6ba4213e4b065940ec77c18a97adbfea49c8a38813933d5&scene=21#wechat_redirect 光明的未来能否光明 下]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485932&idx=1&sn=51ae6369386f912fbce4932ca9f80650&chksm=ce753d11f902b407d6887492d34231f9e35c99419b53771084900e14fcc6c1693ff4c86d4acc&scene=21#wechat_redirect 罗湖为啥会一蹶不振]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485971&idx=1&sn=20ebcedf95101c7b4dfac8f25668cf31&chksm=ce753eeef902b7f8f8d25a4064bd175ae44341cb1ad964c6270edcfc8da78f16b097d43954bf&scene=21#wechat_redirect 福田会罗湖般没落吗]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485986&idx=1&sn=a9755f55e81529111c6bd271e0b99ad6&chksm=ce753edff902b7c9603d4e31d189b77e7fecd145fd88e451317c56f93c06d58b7e39aaedc30c&scene=21#wechat_redirect 宇宙中心龙华的归属]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247486046&idx=1&sn=200613447d2b0a8ce61a191920744dd2&chksm=ce753ea3f902b7b5cc22cfe4d7f42696288dd3f7aafd7c8f09152f7eac2fceb64007bfc0ff43&scene=21#wechat_redirect 龙岗的未来还有救吗]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: none;">》</span></span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">观点看法:</span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247484282&idx=1&sn=7b2279d9fbb7ba9f13e590df6e2d4453&chksm=ce753787f902be916603ce1da3c5e9f7d0fc8a81ab37b39727b0ec4bf4a4ca8b16a71b479e8d&scene=21#wechat_redirect 涨幅为啥分化]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247484411&idx=1&sn=13d8051032c268839b9f78079c1d8411&chksm=ce753706f902be1084e555f57aff175968a33fcf657f56ef6058d9faacc0fdda1386d5023281&scene=21#wechat_redirect 注意滑坡谬论]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">如果过去有系统性的看过我写的这些文章,应该能理解到,我的观点主张中,有这么几个用大量数据验证的概念。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">1,深圳已经过了那个野蛮生长的时期,站在一线城市前列,往后想保持经济增速都颇具挑战。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">加上罗湖崛起之后的深圳其他片区在顶层规划时,也考虑到了时代局限性的问题,所以都有预留战略纵深空间。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">区域之间规划和发展带来的溢价,客观上确实有,但在房价中控制变量拆分出来看这个属性,占比并不大。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">2,只不过一众新区因为后置建设开发, 普遍楼龄新产品更好。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">过去因为人口结构的变化,买房群体变得年轻化,这部分年轻化的群体因为与父辈完全不同的生活习惯和偏好,导致了次新房认可度变高,带有该属性的房屋,涨的相对会更好一些。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">说白了,过去不同板块之间,近五六年这轮周期,涨幅拉开较大差异化的核心是产品,而非地段。</span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 14px;">(不排除很久很久以前 就已经拉开了)(深圳比较特殊 城市小 其他地方不一定通用)</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">新区正好和次新房这个概念有较高的重叠,如果是拿楼龄一样的产品在不同片区来对比,涨幅差异其实并不至于很难接受。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">只是很多人预设立场,在解释其观点时,喜欢拿极端案例来佐证,导致这块有很深的迷惑性和反常。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">四、</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">如果是因为购房人群结构的变化,导致次新房涨的更多的这个角度,我觉得长期看,关外这些品质好些近地铁的产品,比起关内的老破小还是会有继续拉开一定的空间的。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">毕竟购房人群年化的趋势完全不可逆。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">只不过过去次新房已经拉开的很大的差距,这个现象实际在价格上有很深的体现,如今同样地段的次新房比老小区确实贵了太多。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">要说能涨的更多,估计也就是一点,一点是字面意思。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">说白了,若是没有新的变量打破这种格局,我并不觉得以后两者之间的涨幅会像以前那样,继续进一步明显放大差别。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(255, 76, 65);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">至少这一点的差距,不值得大家来妥协自身自住的个性化需求。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">五、</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">但就是很巧,现在这几年确实有个新的变量——新房限价。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">相关题材我写过:</span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485282&idx=1&sn=830e66b445b32c2480d8eabb48fd4cae&chksm=ce75339ff902ba890b8da72ba48ed40cf502c9da8ada0cfd75716e2ad51fe0db732ca25dc7d1&scene=21#wechat_redirect 新房二手差异有多大]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247485143&idx=1&sn=59b2591ce084e3825f5d78163188eb4e&chksm=ce75322af902bb3c93ec3a8ea834a2283fa05310c0b8bc2f8cce311ab347f089bb5f9ddbe86b&scene=21#wechat_redirect 新房价值的科学评估]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247486110&idx=1&sn=c3b9a38b2175caea9728028ce4a8bc1c&chksm=ce753e63f902b7750ce85e32f42eb4c2a6ec9994f50faea7ce5cdee3b2e2ee3eb76289b0a227&scene=21#wechat_redirect 新房使用率特别差吗 上]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247486173&idx=1&sn=8034fc97dc09fe99dc4b8d490c9246e0&chksm=ce753e20f902b736cd22405748f7f1503c463f9d78ae107410e7e7907482c71c7f0fb1d495e8&scene=21#wechat_redirect 新房使用率特别差吗 下]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247486075&idx=1&sn=e9b9c932088105ee1b722a89b43e85bb&chksm=ce753e86f902b790d9a98ed6382cb30a96892c3f51444e988ed25854df7ab4faf22eb9645935&scene=21#wechat_redirect 魔幻无比的深圳楼市]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247486416&idx=1&sn=79b8bc631cb0a4f4ad8532db102e5225&chksm=ce753f2df902b63be509329c6cdeb0e1e07545214d04bc2af7bca0cf36cf07f1746eeaafd240&scene=21#wechat_redirect 深圳楼市的魔幻情绪]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247486570&idx=1&sn=b5895bb4066ac90df5862428cfc30cfb&chksm=ce753897f902b1810056c9274ee1c669e2da8d3871e5f3b867696a1c541b7afd05f5d289f216&scene=21#wechat_redirect 深圳楼市的买房建议(22年Q3)]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><br /> </span> <span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">说白了,当下这个阶段,如果是一样的产品,在市场上都能正常流通和成交的情况下,绝大部分新房就是要比二手要便宜10-100%。。。</span> <br /> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">花着同样的钱,在新房市场比起二手,能买到更好的产品,而且是随便买,哪怕是沙井、光明、龙岗等区域,以上现象都是在的。</span><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(255, 76, 65);">(觉得这现象反常建议看下前面这些延伸题材 有很详细的观点)</span></span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">本来是新房和二手市场之间的差别,跟老破小和新远大之间关系不大,但巧就巧在,远郊是目前新房供应的主流。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">而关内花着一样的钱,只能买小户型,可这种新房在市场上。。。压根没有,也就只能倒逼着买二手。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;">延伸阅读:</span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247487049&idx=1&sn=342ab20c38b41c2db31a923d030f73ea&chksm=ce753ab4f902b3a25d489860946c2628f4af1e1f33420ca3eb6a7091bb8a95141bb42f45c562&scene=21#wechat_redirect 深圳二手房成交数据 8月]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">《</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-decoration: underline;">[http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2MzcwODU2Mg==&mid=2247486482&idx=1&sn=de8bd99eb5701f748f4c1214aa15addf&chksm=ce7538eff902b1f99de5e22322aee77c5b496dd5498b3ce5df1c36fa9c7a5bb3ec06b7141f77&scene=21#wechat_redirect 深圳房价暴跌了几多 7月]</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">》</span></span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">现在互联网上都在说深圳的房价跌的连妈都找不到了,好似快崩盘了一样,但我这边的数据,为啥跌完之后的价格,还这么辣眼睛。</span> <br /> <span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);letter-spacing: 0.5px;">至少比起绝大部分新房的价格,买个锤子喔。。</span>
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老破小和新远大咋选
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